The future of energy was never about a bigger smokestack or more coal. It was always about the panel on your roof and the battery in your garage.
— Jim Carroll
Original 2021 statement: Energy grids are shifting from mostly one way distribution to massively two way interconnected systems
What Jim has written about this
From “The Trends Scorecard: Energy & Utilities - What I Predicted, and What Actually Happened” (June 2026)
For years I stood on stages in front of utility CEOs and oil executives and told them the same uncomfortable thing: the centralized, carbon-based, one-way model you have run for a hundred years is ending, and the future belongs to a distributed, intelligent, two-way grid that you do not yet control . Some of them rolled their eyes. A lot of them are living it now. Back in 2015, in an interview for GE Reports, I framed the whole risk in one image that the music industry already knew too well. The quickly shifting energy landscape means utilities and other industry players must be careful not to be “MP3’d” like the music industry. Could the energy generation and distribution industry find itself in the same position as music companies did in the past — stuck defending an older and entrenched business model, rather than embracing new ideas, concepts and methodologies?
This was the prediction that made a few utility CEOs squirm. I kept asking them one question: could you be MP3’d? Could you end up like the record labels, defending an old business model while the world moved on? I said it plainly in that GE Reports interview. That’s why I have challenged utility CEOs to ask the question, “Could they be MP3’d?” Could the energy generation and distribution industry find itself in the same position as music companies did in the past — stuck defending an older and entrenched business model, rather than embracing new ideas, concepts and methodologies.
At the end of 2019, in my “20 Trends into 2030” piece, I wrote a retrospective from the imagined vantage point of the future and described what the energy industry would look like once the transformation played out. This is the paragraph that maps almost the entire modern energy thesis in one breath. We’ve moved from a world of centralized energy production based on big facilities generating from carbon and nuclear, to a massively distributed architecture based on the input of millions of small, local renewable energy resources. We’ve gone from essentially dumb, one-way grids to highly intelligent two-way smart grids that feature accelerated load balancing. The architecture of the grid itself has changed - for example, most cars and trucks have now become a part of the energy grid through vehicle-to-grid battery connectivity, storing energy during off peak hours and feeding it back into the grid later on. Most utilities have also found themselves operating in the highway and road-building industry, as electrified roads and charging infrastructure appeared everywhere to support a world that involves a majority of electric-battery vehicles.
From “AI Megatrends - AI In Energy : Connected, Intelligent Energy and Energy SaaS” (June 2023)
battery recycling : most electric vehicle batteries are designed for a lifespan of about 12 years before they lose efficiency, but they can be repurposed and reused in microgrid energy storage solutions for a ‘second life’. One company, Connected Energy in the UK, has equity investment from Volvo, Caterpillar, and others, who recognize the emerging secondary market for used batteries. Connected Energy will specialize in taking old car batteries and building them into large-scale commercial energy storage systems.
Batteries, which can store energy from wind and solar, are another area where AI could play a role in the power grids of the future. One company, Stem Inc. of Millbrae, Calif., helps corporations in the U.S. source battery systems, and then uses software called Athena that learns companies’ consumption patterns and autonomously decides when to use battery power to avoid consumption when prices are the highest—in the middle of a hot day, for example.
One way AI and ML algorithms can be used is through predictive analytics. These algorithms can analyze large amounts of data from renewable energy sources, weather patterns, and energy usage patterns to predict future energy demand and supply. This information can then be used to optimize the operation of the hybrid wind-PV power system to match energy supply with demand, reducing waste and maximizing energy efficiency.
From “Daily Inspiration: “It’s time to move from triage to tomorrow!”” (January 2023)
Energy grids are shifting from mostly one-way distribution to massively two-way interconnected systems
One of the biggest energy opportunities in the next decade is to be found in an integrated home-energy wind/solar/battery/thermostat/iOT integrated system.
Read the full pieces on jimcarroll.com:
The Trends Scorecard: Energy & Utilities - What I Predicted, and What Actually Happened
AI Megatrends - AI In Energy : Connected, Intelligent Energy and Energy SaaS
Daily Inspiration: “It’s time to move from triage to tomorrow!”