Signals

Standards for autonomous agents to discover, negotiate and transact could become a new commerce layer.

Early agentic commerce tests whether machines can safely hold delegated commercial authority.

Machine-guided discovery may move from candidate generation into commercially important materials pipelines.

Capability extraction and imitation could reshape model economics, security and intellectual-property strategy.

Agentic tools may let very small firms operate with capabilities previously requiring teams.

AI triage and navigation may become the first interaction for routine healthcare in some systems.

Cheap vision systems and drones may make continuous field observation routine.

AI may create new learn-while-doing pathways where junior workers acquire capability through supervised machine collaboration.

Geofenced trucking corridors may scale autonomy earlier than unrestricted passenger vehicles.

Mining, construction and agriculture may normalize supervised autonomous equipment before consumer autonomy is universal.

Closed-loop AI plus robotics could materially shorten experimental cycles in chemistry, materials and biology.

Vision and robotics may improve recovery economics for mixed material streams.

Watch vehicle support, charger deployment, warranties and utility programs rather than theoretical battery capacity.

AI workloads may increasingly follow energy availability when latency permits.

Repeatable servicing missions would signal the emergence of an orbital maintenance economy.

Cryptographic provenance standards may become routine infrastructure for high-trust media and enterprise evidence.

Wearables may move beyond activity metrics toward clinically useful continuous biochemical sensing.

Connection queues, on-site generation and regional moratoria may reveal where AI growth collides with physical infrastructure.

The key signal is sustained commercial production at competitive cost, not laboratory feasibility.

Regulatory and supply-chain adoption could make product-level material provenance routine.

Evidence-based software therapies could re-emerge after early commercial disappointments if reimbursement and outcomes improve.

Machine-responsive tariffs could turn flexible loads into grid resources.

Watch durable productivity and retention evidence after pilots rather than employee preference alone.

Longer-duration battery projects may become routine as solar penetration increases.

The signal to watch is expansion from highly targeted therapies toward broader disease categories.

Machine-readable rules could move parts of compliance from interpretation after the fact into software execution.

Can humanoids achieve useful economics in unstructured workplaces and homes?

Watch for randomized evidence that interventions improve healthy lifespan rather than biomarkers alone.

Standards and insurance treatment will be leading indicators of humanoid deployment beyond pilots.

AI systems may become persistent analytical participants in executive and board decision processes without formal fiduciary status.

Enhanced geothermal could become dispatchable clean power if drilling economics and project repeatability improve.

Event-driven chips may find specialized low-power sensing and robotics applications.

Photonics may relieve power and bandwidth constraints in selected AI workloads.

Long-lived AI memory could turn assistants into durable personal operating layers, but privacy and control remain unresolved.

Watch whether fermentation-derived proteins achieve cost parity in mainstream applications.

Engineered biological materials could introduce repair, sensing or adaptive properties into products and infrastructure.

The key uncertainty is whether organizations replace vulnerable cryptography before quantum capability becomes threatening.

Synthetic media and agents may create demand for scalable ways to prove a human is present without destroying privacy.

The important signal is repeatable unit economics across multiple regulatory and geographic environments.

Dexterity, crop variability and economics remain gates to widespread robotic harvesting.

Rising robot adoption in food processing may signal automation spreading beyond automotive and electronics.

Surgical robots may progress from teleoperation toward supervised autonomous subtasks.

AI-managed controls may adapt to changing risk conditions, challenging conventional audit assumptions.

I'm pulling together a slide deck for an upcoming healthcare keynote.

A future-of-work signal about the growing strategic value of assembling the right capabilities quickly.

In a world of extremely short attention, retailers increasingly compete for a share of attention before they can compete for a share of wallet.

AI capability is improving quickly enough that leaders risk anchoring strategy to the limitations of today's systems.

The test is whether employers materially reduce degree requirements and use verifiable skills evidence in actual hiring.

Efficient specialized models may move significant inference away from hyperscale clouds.

Watch actual construction time and cost rather than announcements as SMRs approach first commercial deployments.

Early experiments in orbital compute or storage should be judged against energy, thermal and communications economics.

Organizations may formally assign persistent AI agents roles, permissions, performance measures and managers.

Progress in logical qubits is a critical gate between laboratory quantum systems and economically useful computation.

Utility tariffs and aggregator business models are a stronger signal than technical demonstrations.

On February 12, 2002, United States Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld answered a question at a U.S. Department of Defence (DoD) news briefing about the lack of evidence linking the government of Iraq with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups. His answer has since answered the lexicon of lore, as many people thought that it was fully intended to shield the department from any sort of...

I'm off to speak at an event today that combines the themes of personalized and predictive medicine, medical device technology, and the future of manufacturing. It should be a great event! I'll report more below, and tomorrow.

As CEOs rush to get their people back to the office, they are forgetting one key thing: the best ones aren't excited about coming back to widely dysfunctional organizations. And since they have the skills that are needed the most, they'll choose who to work for, where they'll do the work, and the corporate 'culture' they'll choose to subscribe to.

This post is not some personal validation or moral high ground type of thing.

Some weeks ago, in my Megatrends series, I wrote about the future of healthcare - in particular, the impact or preventative medicine, predictive medicine, and accelerating longevity.

We are moving from SEO to GEO and it's happening incredibly fast!

It was an honor to present at the recent BIFMA 360 Leadership Conference in St. Petersburg, where I took a hard look at the "era of acceleration" currently transforming the manufacturing industry.

A few weeks ago, I spoke to folks at the Guelph Wellington Men's Club - a networking community in the new city where i live. The topic? AI. The room? Jam-packed with retirees - judges, lawyers, doctors, executives, tradesmen. Standing room only with a crowd intensely interested in what I had to say.

So, is there anything going on in the automotive industry right now?

So, it's become really, well, weird, to speak at events and conferences as of late.

So he put his phone number out there.

Last week, Jack Dorsey (one of the original founders of Twitter) issued a memo that will likely be remembered as the "intelligence-native" manifesto, in which he announced a massive set of layoffs at his company, Block.

To work at the leading edge of AI today is to work with a world that is moving at an astonishing speed. All around you. It's a world of fast-moving developments. To name just a few:

We talk constantly about the "promise" of artificial intelligence, but there is a massive difference between a brilliant algorithm and actual, real-world implementation.

One year ago, in June 2025, I published Megatrend #2: Ambient Intelligence as part of my 30 Megatrends series.

One year ago, in June 2025, I published Megatrend #3: Human Technology Integration as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Here's part of what I wrote: The boundary between technology and biology is blurring with neural interfaces, bio-monitoring, augmentation technologies, and medical device connectivity which we can refer to as bio-connectivity. It creates a new form of hyperconnected medicine, leading to entirely...

One year ago, in June 2025, I published Megatrend #4: Digital Twinning as part of my 30 Megatrends series.

One year ago, in June 2025, I published Megatrend #1: Transformative AI as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #6: Electrification Revolution as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Here's a bit of what I wrote: The massive shift from carbon combustion to electric power is transforming transportation, infrastructure, and energy supply chains. This is not a gradual transition but rather a fundamental rewiring of how power flows through our economy. Some folks have made it a...

One year ago, in June 2025, I published Megatrend #5: Knowledge Acceleration as part of my 30 Megatrends series.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #8: The Circular Economy as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #7: Energy Decentralization as part of my 30 Megatrends series.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #9: Climate-Positive Technologies as part of my 30 Megatrends series.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #10: Predictive and Preventative Healthcare as part of my 30 Megatrends series.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #11: Longevity Science as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #13: Brain and Cognitive Health as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #14: Mass Customization Systems as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #12: Personalized Medicine as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #15: 24-Hour Farming & Agricultural Reinvention as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #16: Material Science Breakthroughs as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #17: Micro-Autonomous Systems as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #18: Compressed Innovation Cycles as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #19: Temporal Commerce as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #20: Physical-Digital Retail Integration as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #21: Career Obsolescence and Creation as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #22: Cross-Disciplinary Specialists as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #23: Generational Value Shifts as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #24: The Five Generation Society as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in July 2025, I published Megatrend #25: Urban Reimagination as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in August 2025, I published Megatrend #26: The Great R&D Capital Reallocation as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in August 2025, I published Megatrend #28: The Chase for Authenticity as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in August 2025, I published Megatrend #29: The Arrival of the Humanoid Robot as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

One year ago, in August 2025, I published Megatrend #30: The Acceleration Paradox as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

At Genentech, a member of the Roche Group, I addressed 550 executives in San Francisco and challenged them to think beyond breakthrough science toward the broader reinvention made possible by exponential genomics.

At the DSSI Annual Forum in San Antonio, one of the largest senior care conferences in the U.S., I spoke with unusual passion about the innovation opportunities emerging as aging populations, dementia rates and care capacity pressures intensify.

The National Safety Council conference is the largest gathering of occupational health and safety professionals in the world. More than 15,000 of them showed up when I spoke to them, and I opened by telling them the old safety playbook was already out of date.

I opened the World Pharma Innovation Congress in London with a message about rapid scientific acceleration, global collaboration and the innovation opportunity emerging across the life sciences.

In September 2025, the headwinds are severe, and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory. With that being the case, I am writing this new series, The Way Forward: A Trends and Transformation Series, taking a look at the trends redefining industries, and actionable strategies organizations must pursue to align to these...

In 2025, the headwinds are severe, and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory. With that being the case, I am writing this new series, The Way Forward: A Trends and Transformation Series, taking a look at the trends redefining industries, and actionable strategies organizations must pursue to align to these realities. The...

In 2025, the headwinds are severe, and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory. With that being the case, I am writing this new series, The Way Forward: A Trends and Transformation Series, taking a look at the trends redefining industries, and actionable strategies organizations must pursue to align with these realities. The...

In 2025, the headwinds are severe, and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory. With that being the case, I am writing this new series, The Way Forward: A Trends and Transformation Series, taking a look at the trends redefining industries, and actionable strategies organizations must pursue to align to these realities. The...

In 2025, the headwinds are severe, and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory. With that being the case, I am writing this new series, The Way Forward: A Trends and Transformation Series, taking a look at the trends redefining industries, and actionable strategies organizations must pursue to align with these realities. The...

In 2025, the headwinds are severe, and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory. With that being the case, I am writing this new series, The Way Forward: A Trends and Transformation Series, taking a look at the trends redefining industries, and actionable strategies organizations must pursue to align with these realities. The...

In 2025, the headwinds are severe, and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory. With that being the case, I am writing this new series, The Way Forward: A Trends and Transformation Series, taking a look at the trends redefining industries, and actionable strategies organizations must pursue to align with these realities. The...

In 2025, the headwinds are severe, and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory. With that being the case, I am writing this new series, The Way Forward: A Trends and Transformation Series, taking a look at the trends redefining industries, and actionable strategies organizations must pursue to align with these realities. The...

In 2025, the headwinds are severe, and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory. With that being the case, I am writing this new series, The Way Forward: A Trends and Transformation Series, taking a look at the trends redefining industries, and actionable strategies organizations must pursue to align with these realities. The...