The signal
Phone and laptop makers are shipping AI chips and small models that run on the device. Businesses are using compact models for specialized tasks where cost and privacy matter.
Where it could lead
Running AI locally reduces cloud costs, works without an internet connection and keeps sensitive data on-site — shifting power away from a few big cloud providers.
Evidence that would strengthen the case
- Most everyday AI tasks run on the device
- Small models match large ones on specialized business tasks
- Tools make it easy to build and update on-device AI
What could prevent it
- Large cloud models stay far more capable
- Device hardware can’t keep up with model demands
- Cloud pricing drops enough to remove the cost advantage