Structural change

Trends

The forces changing what comes next, organized by domain, industry and time horizon.

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1. 4D Printing: 3D printing is already so yesterday. In fact, while it's getting a lot of attention, it's actually 30 years old. And yes, it's got a long way to go in terms of its real adoption and impact; it's barely scratched the surface in the world of manufacturing. But the newest buzz is around 4D printing, or what we might call 'customizable' smart...

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Even as trend #1 - "techno-skepticism" - takes hold in our global consciousness, a second more profound trend is underway. For lack of a better phrase, let's call it "Accelerating Acceleration." How does this reconcile with techno-skepticism?

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Speed up the identification of new disease mechanisms, therapeutic targets, and diagnostic tools, leading to faster development of innovative treatments and cures for a wide range of medical conditions.

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Follow the trend involving the exponentiation of pure science, and we might soon be able to architect aircraft that are lighter than air - just like that of Wonder Woman's jet! That's where the fast emerging trend of new materials science might potentially lead us.

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Learning systems continuously adjust content, pace, assessment and support to the learner rather than the cohort.

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Accelerate the potential for rapid prototyping, customized part production, on-demand manufacturing, and the creation of complex geometries, leading to faster product development and supply chain optimization.

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Defensive and offensive cyber operations increasingly use autonomous AI agents operating at machine speed.

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Legal, accounting, consulting, engineering and advisory firms redesign delivery around machine-augmented workflows rather than adding AI to old processes.

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2. Amazonification of Industries: Amazon has everyone in its crosshairs as it moves beyond the sale of hard products. This include the home repair/renovation business, to optometrists or heading specialists, to automotive repair. Amazon isn't just about selling goods -- increasingly, it's about selling the services that go with those goods. And if your...

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Computing is becoming less visible as intelligence moves into the environments, devices and objects around us.

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Continuous sensing and predictive analytics shift more healthcare from episodic diagnosis toward early intervention.

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Distributed devices increasingly optimize, trade and respond to energy price and grid signals automatically.

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Robotic field operations and machine vision reduce dependence on human presence for routine agricultural work.

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Drones, robots and sensors continuously inspect bridges, pipelines, grids, buildings and industrial assets.

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Autonomy becomes a network phenomenon linking vehicles, logistics, infrastructure, insurance and urban operations.

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AI agents move from assisting individual tasks toward coordinating multi-step organizational processes with bounded authority.

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AI systems increasingly generate hypotheses, design experiments and coordinate robotic laboratories.

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Brain health is becoming a larger focus of science, diagnostics and prevention as populations age and cognitive health receives more sustained attention.

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Ensure local food security, reduce transportation distances and associated emissions for produce, minimize water usage and pesticide application, and provide fresh crops year-round directly in densely populated areas.

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Compute workloads increasingly move in time or geography in response to electricity availability, grid constraints and carbon intensity.

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Technology destroys some tasks and roles while creating new categories of work, often faster than education and career systems can respond.

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15. Chief Robotics Officers / Chief Automation Officers . According to IDC, 30% of tech and companies in the automation space will fill such a position in the coming year. Automation is all the rage, with many dire predictions on the impact on jobs and careers. But there is more to it than that, with the result that as robotics and automation continues...

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Digital product passports, materials tracking and automated sorting make material recovery more measurable and economically useful.

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A growing set of technologies aims not only to reduce environmental impact but to remove, store or avoid emissions through new infrastructure and materials.

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10. Collaborative careers take over. With ongoing specialization of knowledge, organizations will find that they will have to spend more time simply coordinating access to knowledge. The trend is already playing out in health care: one study found that physicians believe they will send more time on leading teams and coordinating care, than on the...

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17. Complexity partnerships drive innovation. AS things become more complex, companies realize they can't do it all on their own. More JV's, skills partnerships, and other forms of talent access become critical. Consider a GE study: 85% of senior executives are concerned about the velocity introduced by digitization and are open to idea collaboration;...

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The time between idea, design, launch and obsolescence is shrinking across many industries.

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Farming becomes a continuously modeled biological system combining AI, sensing, autonomy and precision inputs.

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Energy in our electrical system used to be one-way and was mostly from carbon.

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You won't be selling tomorrow what you sell today. You'll either be selling something very, very different, or you won't be selling anything at all. You need to reinvent, continuously, and quickly.

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Skills evidence becomes more granular, current and portable than conventional degree-centered signals.

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The pace of new ideas, innovations, concepts, scientific discoveries, and product breakthroughs is occurring at such a pace that the need to align to a world of tomorrow is even more necessary today.

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Growing complexity rewards people who can combine deep expertise with the ability to work across disciplines.

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Optimize food production, distribution, and consumption based on real-time demand and supply data, thereby reducing food waste, improving food system efficiency, and enhancing food security.

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Enable advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), over-the-air software updates, predictive maintenance, enhanced infotainment, and the future integration of autonomous driving capabilities.

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Digital twins move experimentation into a virtual environment where products, facilities and systems can be modeled before physical change occurs.

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Sometimes it does seem like the world has gone mad – extremely divisive politics, a rise in hate crimes, absolute emotional terrorism on social networks, attacks on public institutions, and increasing violence. Everyone has a feeling that things are getting out of hand. That’s why trend #12 on my “23 Trends for 2023” is the issue of “Doubling Down on...

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AI inference shifts into vehicles, factories, devices, medical equipment and infrastructure rather than relying only on centralized clouds.

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More of the economy is being reorganized around electricity, storage, renewable generation and software-managed power.

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Power systems are shifting from a model dominated by centralized generation toward networks of distributed generation, storage and flexible demand.

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Most companies are on a path trying to get key employees back to the office. Return to work is the beating drum.

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there's going to be more of it it's going to come at us with greater speed and intensity unless we are watching really carefully, we won't be aware of it until we have to deal with it the implications of not dealing with new risks will become more severe as time moves on it's not the known risk that will get us - it's the unknown risk that matters there...

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Organizations adopt machine-readable provenance for data, media, model outputs and automated decisions.

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9. "Exercise is medicine" is the new medicine: in which physical therapy becomes a formalized part of medical treatment programs. This will include prescriptions written by doctors that provide for treatment by fitness professionals. The goal of EIM is to slow, stop or reverse the progression of chronic diseases: and as those diseases and the resultant...

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Next month will mark 3 years since individuals and organizations began to go through the largest disruption they will ever know. With lockdowns, a staggering loss of human life, work-from-home, and the rapid emergence of a digital lifestyle and e-commerce infrastructure - we all had to learn to adapt quickly.

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7. Gadgets get dumb: In 2017, low-tech innovation will gain increasing attention as the marvel of 'smart things' begins to wear off. People are beginning to realize that many smart things are really 'dumb things' because of bad design. They'll begin to rebel or lose interest in many aspects of the Internet of Things, and all the complexities that comes...

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Different generations bring different expectations about technology, work, consumption, institutions and personal priorities.

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11. Green China: in 2017, the environment will be under siege: the new political reality will likely result in a pushback against anything environmental in the US. A new of uncertainty will drive away investment. The result? Many of the next wave innovations with wind, solar, tidal and other alternative forms of energy will come from a most unsurprising...

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Some regions experience periods of extremely low marginal electricity costs as renewable generation and storage scale.

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Longer healthy life becomes a major design constraint for healthcare, financial services, housing, work and consumer markets.

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Wearables, connected medical devices, implants and biological sensing are steadily narrowing the boundary between people and technology.

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Have ever watched a 2 year old go from an iPad to a flat-screen TV in the living room? They try to get the TV to respond in the same way by touching the screen, and are kind of mystified. Another take - one executive that booked me told the story of their 3 year old wandering around the house talking to all kinds of devices - and wondering why didn't...

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General-purpose humanoid robots move from demonstrations into bounded industrial and service workflows.

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Enable farmers to efficiently assess crop health, identify pest infestations or nutrient deficiencies early, optimize irrigation and fertilization, and improve overall farm management and yields.

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Gather vast amounts of real-world data, enable remote control and automation of devices and systems, and create new services and efficiencies across homes, cities, and industries.

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Digital twins evolve from individual assets into connected models of factories, grids, cities and supply networks.

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Companies and people fight the future. Inevitability, they come to accept the inevitability of it all!

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A futurist must always be a relentless optimist, particularly on stage. We've been engaged to provide a tour of the future that provides our audience a sense of hope and opportunity. As I will often joke, I can't go in front of a 1,000 people and start out by saying, "Guess what! Your future sucks!"

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Unlock novel functionalities, improve performance characteristics (e.g., strength, conductivity, efficiency), enable entirely new technologies, and drive innovation across diverse sectors from electronics to aerospace.

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14. IoIT takes over from IOT - Connected intelligence is the new AI, as the Intelligent-Internet-of-Things takes over from boring old Internet-of-Things devices. Quite simply, smart devices become smarter by talking to other smart devices. As they do so, insight gained from connectivity comes to redefine the future of the product. Consider this simple...

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The useful life of knowledge and skills is shrinking while the volume of available knowledge keeps expanding.

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It used to be about what you know. Now it's not only about what you know, but how fast you need to know it!

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30 years of studying and working with global innovation leaders - and those who have failed - teach me the key lesson of transformative innovation: those who succeed are not afraid to step up and look out over the leading edge.

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AI, robotics and additive manufacturing enable smaller highly automated production cells close to demand.

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Folks don't want to talk about the pandemic anymore, but we should, for despite all the awful things that happened, and the massive divisions it has caused in society, one thing is clear: the way that organizations organize, learners learn, science sciences, and experts' expertise, has forever changed.

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Storage expands beyond short-duration lithium-ion applications into multiple chemistries and thermal/mechanical systems.

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Longevity research is increasingly focused on extending healthy years, not simply total lifespan.

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Organizations require identity, permissions, provenance and audit systems for non-human actors operating at scale.

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Software systems increasingly write, test, deploy, monitor and repair portions of their own code under human governance.

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Controls, compliance checks and policy enforcement increasingly execute inside automated workflows rather than after decisions occur.

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Software agents increasingly discover, negotiate, purchase and settle transactions with other machines.

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Manufacturing is moving away from standardized volume alone toward flexible systems that can produce greater variation at scale.

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Materials are becoming more functional, adaptive and engineered for properties that conventional materials could not provide.

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Autonomy is moving toward smaller machines, distributed systems and coordinated swarms designed for narrow physical tasks.

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8. Micro-personalization. We'll witness the acceleration of the trend to the world of 'you.' One size solutions that don't 'fit-all', but fit you. Think, for example, about advances in genomic medicine that allow for engineering of medical treatments for particular genetic profiles - a trend that is closer to reality as a result of the ongoing reduction...

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This is a post about how dramatically your future is set to change.

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Part of the art of figuring out the future is knowing this - you'll often find the real trend by looking beyond the hype to what's actually happening! The hype? Virtual headset virtual reality, best epitomized by the bold but somewhat doomed bet by Mark Zuckerberg with his Meta initiative. The reality? The return of Google Glass ideas with smart heads-up...

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Not hot: cryptocurrency, the Metaverse, Web 3.0, NFT's, and more

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There might be a recession in 2023. Or, maybe not!

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Launch cost declines support growing in-orbit servicing, manufacturing experiments, communications and Earth-observation infrastructure.

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We all know the phrase - insanity is doing the same thing and over again and expecting a different result each time. It doesn't happen. Neither does the mindset of clinging to old business models, out-of-date product ideas, irrelevant concepts, and reliance on yesterday's strategy. In the context of that, it also includes the end of the era of oil and...

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Persistent agents coordinate information, scheduling, purchasing, learning and digital identity across services.

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Medicine is becoming more individualized as genomics, biomarkers and data make diagnosis, prevention and treatment more specific to the person.

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Retail is becoming a blended physical-digital environment in which stores, mobile interfaces, identity, inventory and data operate as one system.

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Organizations migrate cryptographic systems before sufficiently capable quantum computers make current public-key methods unsafe.

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Healthcare is shifting from reacting to illness toward identifying risk earlier through data, genomics, remote monitoring and predictive analytics.

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6. Prognostic diagnostics takes centre stage: While autonomous and self-driving vehicles are all the rage, an equally important transformation is underway. That's the fact that hyper connectivity (aka the Internet of Things) brings companies the ability to diagnose things from afar. It means that transportation, utility, appliance, and other companies...

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Biology becomes increasingly engineerable as computation, synthesis, gene editing and automation converge.

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Quantum computing finds economically useful narrow applications before broad general-purpose advantage arrives.

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5. Ransomware of things. If you thought Internet-of-Things denial of service attacks were bad, wait until you start seeing the impact of this trend. We'll see the emergence of fascinating new hack attacks in which someone will be able to take control of an entire range of Internet connected devices from one manufacturer -- home thermostats, house alarms...

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We might live longer. We will see the reduction, elimination, or perhaps eradication of diseases. We'll fix broken bones with lab-grown materials. We will grow human organs for transplant.

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If what you sell, who you sell it to, how you sell it, and essentially, what it actually is - you've got to change things. If who you are, how you learn, what you know, and what you need to know, you need to reinvent. That means you need to reimagine your future - because it will be fundamentally different from everything you know today.

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We need to plan faster with bigger goals in mind – but we’ve been distracted.

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Robotic capability increasingly becomes purchasable as an operating expense rather than a capital project.

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16. Same Day Infrastructure Hubs: As 'same day' becomes a regular part of our daily lives, more companies will invest in the infrastructure required to support it. It won't involve just the same day shipping of goods. For example, the trend for same food delivery is leading to the emergence of commercial kitchens being created in low-rent, low-cost...

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Infrastructure combines sensing, predictive maintenance and advanced materials to detect and address degradation earlier.

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Supply chains increasingly sense disruptions and reconfigure sourcing, inventory and routing with limited human intervention.

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Electricity networks become increasingly orchestrated through forecasting, distributed resources, storage and dynamic control.

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Persistent spatial intelligence spreads through vehicles, robots, buildings and devices even if consumer headsets remain niche.

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We're moving from a world of two-dimensional 'location intelligence' - think of all the things involving GPS technology - to a world of 3D spatial intelligence - and the this will lead the birth of several new "next" billion dollar industries

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Precision fermentation, cultivated systems and computational food design broaden the production architectures behind food.

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The marginal cost of producing persuasive personalized media approaches zero, increasing the premium on provenance and trust.

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Commerce is increasingly designed around removing time, delay and friction from the customer experience.

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There is a furious rate of scientific advance with the science of bio-materials - and the use of living tissue for medical implants and procedures will be here sooner than you think! Some experts within the industry think it is only a matter of years, not decades, before we can grow living arms and legs for transplant.

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"All your base are being to us!" That's what happens with the transfer of control of the future from idea-tired, change-resistant, policy-weak and narrow-thinking baby boomers to the first adult generation weaned on the Internet.

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Over the last few years, 3 of the world's largest global legal firms have asked me in for a talk on the new risks and challenges they are faced with in the era of acceleration. In addition, another one invited me for a similar talk in Dallas and Chicago for their major clients - a vast collection of chief legal officers from global Fortune 500 companies.

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The same acceleration that creates extraordinary capability also increases the speed, scale and complexity of risk.

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Humanoid robotics is moving from spectacular demonstrations toward narrow, paid work in factories, logistics and care environments.

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We live in perilous, scary times - there are people around you who actually believe the wild conspiracies found in this image below. (And actually, if you go down the rabbit hole of the creator, you will find a store where you can buy a poster of it - and some equally crazy stuff.)

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As synthetic content and algorithmic mediation expand, signals of human origin, imperfection and direct trust become more valuable.

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Products and materials are being redesigned around reuse, recovery, remanufacturing and reduced waste rather than a one-way take-make-discard model.

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In almost every single industry, there are people who are thinking big and bold about the opportunities that surround them. This includes completely rethinking about the nature of the product that they are bringing to the marketplace or the service that they might offer.

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Supply chains? They'll start to disappear as we move the physical production of product closer to the consumer with 3D printing, end of runway manufacturing, and tremendous innovations in last mile delivery!

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Some of my 19 trends for 2019 aren't profound, in that people are already aware of them. What is important is acknowledging the speed and reality of the trend, and in 2019, the acceleration is real. So here's the thing: despite the current moment of political idiocy around us involving 19th coal, there is one undeniable fact going into the future : oil...

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As a futurist, I'm often called on by Fortune 1000 organizations to speak at their global leadership meetings, you get a sense as to what CEO's and senior executives are concentrating on.

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4. The expectation gap: This is a huge issue for 2017, obviously, but people aren't really thinking about what to do with it. Quite simply, people have developed expectations that won't be met. The gap has always been there, but it is evident that it is growing! For examples, consider the perception that people have with respect to the payout that their...

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Longer lives and changing work patterns are creating societies in which five generations are active at the same time.

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What’s the essence of the trend? Simply put, you likely don’t have the skills that you need to get into our faster, more complicated future. You’ve got machine operators, but you need 3D printing experts; land surveyors when you require location intelligence professionals; or gas engine designers when you need experts in penguin behaviour.

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Globalization as we know it is over -and with that, one of the most basic assumptions which have driven the post-World War 2 economy has come to an end.

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Research capital is shifting rapidly toward a smaller number of technologies and geographies perceived to offer outsized future returns.

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3. The Impact of Generational Time Shifting. Baby boomers are living longer and retiring later. Millennials are marrying later, having kids later, and buying houses later. The next generation moves out of their parents homes later. Take a look around, and whatever the case may be, people are doing things later in life than they used to! The implications...

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Simply put, megacities are the future. This results in new careers, new infrastructure, new innovation, new trends! Cities own the future, and the impact will be everywhere. One example? The acceleration of vertical farming concepts!

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As they say, timing is everything, particularly when it comes to the issue of getting involved in any particular trend. In the era of acceleration, it becomes even more critical. You'd better make sure you are ready with any trend of importance and relevance, because the future might happen before you know it.

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Since 1900, global life expectancy has doubled. But now, accelerating medical science, combined with a focus on lifestyle, is leading us to the era of the 'super-seniors' - a growing percentage of the population that will live a rewarding and fulfilling life to 100 and perhaps, beyond.

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There can't be a bigger story in tech this year - other than the self-inflicted destruction of many aspects of the tech sector through hubris, arrogance, and fraud - than what has happened with AI.

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They're everywhere! Little robots scurrying about, doing the jobs that humans don't want to do!

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13. The Yottabit era. It's said that a self-driving car is capturing and processing 7 terabytes of data per hour !That's a huge amount of information, and is indicative of the fact that the big shift in transportation is that cars are essentially just becoming computers on wheels. The typical truck today contains more technology than a Cessna airplane,...

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Trend #5 of my ‘23 Trends for 2023” – Transformation, Not Innovation!

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AI is moving from a discrete software capability into a general-purpose layer embedded across products, workflows and decisions.

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Significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution from transportation, lower reliance on fossil fuels, and decrease vehicle operating costs due to cheaper fuel and maintenance.

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12. UI Supremacy. As dumb-devices take centre stage, innovators will work to reverse the trend through better design. User interface design will be HOT, and one of the most in-demand skills going forward! Think about it: in many industries, the first efforts into the world of smart things resulted in some pretty stupid devices! Have you ever tried to use...

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Enable more accurate risk assessment through continuous data streams (e.g., from IoT devices, telematics), leading to fairer premium pricing, personalized insurance products, and proactive risk mitigation advice.

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Cities are evolving from collections of separate infrastructure systems toward more connected, adaptive and data-informed urban ecosystems.

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Increase production speed and throughput, improve product quality and consistency, enhance worker safety by automating dangerous tasks, and enable more flexible and adaptive manufacturing lines.

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Electric vehicles become dispatchable energy resources as standards, incentives and bidirectional charging mature.

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One of the most fascinating trends unfolding in our future involves the world's oldest profession.

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Water systems use sensing, leakage analytics, reuse and distributed treatment to manage scarcity and infrastructure loss.

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When four industries come together to pursue a trend, you’ve got something big happening. And that’s what’s going on as healthcare, the food industry, the agricultural and technology industries come together to pursue one of the biggest trends of our time.

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