What’s happening
Companies and researchers are testing quantum computers on chemistry and optimization problems. Claims of practical advantage remain debated, and error rates are still high.
Timing: LATER — roughly 7–15 years before this becomes structural.
Why it matters
Narrow early wins would attract investment and prove value, even before general-purpose quantum computing arrives.
What would make it real
- A quantum computer solves a valuable problem faster or better than classical methods
- Companies pay for quantum results, not just research access
- Reliability improves steadily
What would kill it
- Classical computers and AI keep matching quantum results
- Error correction takes much longer than expected
- Funding dries up after hype