What’s happening
Several companies have humanoid robots in paid pilots at car plants and logistics centres. They are slower and less reliable than humans or specialized machines, but improving quickly.
Timing: LATER — roughly 5–10 years before this becomes structural.
Why it matters
A robot shaped like a person can work in spaces designed for people without rebuilding them. If costs fall, humanoids could fill labour shortages in many industries.
What would make it real
- Robots working full shifts reliably without human intervention
- Prices falling to be competitive with human labour costs
- Customers expanding deployments after pilots
What would kill it
- Reliability and speed don’t improve enough
- Safety incidents lead to restrictions
- Specialized robots prove cheaper for the same tasks