What’s happening
New quantum-resistant standards have been published, and governments have set timelines for switching. Many organizations have barely started identifying where old encryption is used.
Timing: LATER — roughly 5–15 years before this becomes structural.
Why it matters
Sensitive data stolen today could be decrypted later. The upgrade will touch almost every system and take years.
What would make it real
- Major platforms enable quantum-safe encryption by default
- Regulators enforce migration deadlines
- Complete inventories of vulnerable systems
What would kill it
- Organizations delay until it’s too late
- Weaknesses found in the new standards
- Quantum progress outpaces migration