The bottom line
Technology destroys some tasks and roles while creating new categories of work, often faster than education and career systems can respond.
Why it matters
The practical challenge is transition. Individuals and organizations need faster reskilling, clearer pathways into emerging roles and less reliance on static job definitions built for slower technological change.
From the foresight archive
Jim Carroll first published this as Megatrend #21 on 2025-07-24. He revisited it one year later on 2026-09-02, using the retrospective to test the original call against what had happened since.
In that retrospective, Carroll’s own shorthand assessment was: Right on the big picture and the category map — understated how hard entry-level tech got hit. The sunset and sunrise lists landed almost exactly where I drew them; new grads just paid for the transition first.
This page treats the 2025 article as the original foresight call and the 2026 article as the first evidence checkpoint. Later signals and scorecards can be attached without rewriting the historical record.