What’s happening
Launch costs have dropped sharply, satellite constellations are expanding rapidly, and early servicing and in-space manufacturing missions have flown.
Timing: LATER — roughly 7–15 years before this becomes structural.
Why it matters
Space-based services support internet access, agriculture, insurance, climate monitoring and defence on Earth. A growing orbital economy creates new industries and new risks, like space debris.
What would make it real
- Regular commercial servicing and manufacturing missions
- Products made in space with value on Earth
- International rules for managing crowded orbits
What would kill it
- Space debris incidents
- Launch costs stop falling
- Markets for in-space services stay small