The signal
Enhanced geothermal pilot plants are producing power, and costs are falling as drilling gets faster. Larger commercial projects are under development.
Where it could lead
Unlike solar or wind, geothermal runs all day and night. If it becomes cheap and repeatable, it could provide steady clean power and reuse oil-and-gas skills and equipment.
Evidence that would strengthen the case
- Multiple large plants delivered on time and budget
- Drilling costs continue falling with each project
- Utilities sign long-term contracts for geothermal power
What could prevent it
- Drilling costs stop falling
- Earthquake or water concerns trigger local opposition
- Cheap batteries plus solar outcompete it