The signal
Researchers have shown that error correction can improve reliability as systems get bigger — a key milestone. Machines with enough reliable parts to solve valuable real-world problems are still years away.
Where it could lead
Useful quantum computers could transform drug discovery, materials and security. Error correction is the gate that decides when that happens.
Evidence that would strengthen the case
- Systems with many reliable error-corrected units running long calculations
- A quantum computer solving a useful problem classical computers can’t
- Steady, predictable improvement year over year
What could prevent it
- Scaling up proves far harder than expected
- Costs remain enormous
- Classical computers and AI solve the same problems well enough