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101 Things #059: 40% of the big car makers of today won't exist by 2030, because they weren't able to...

A dated future observation from Jim Carroll’s December 7, 2021 “101 Things We Know About Our Future” list.

40% of the big car makers of today won't exist by 2030, because they weren't able to make the shift to technology-focused electric vehicle technology
101-thingsforesight-receipt2021
Publish Date2021-12-07
Updated Date2026-09-18
Made Date2021-12-07
Horizonlater
Outcomeopen
Confidencemedium

Original 2021 statement: 40% of the big car makers of today won’t exist by 2030, because they weren’t able to make the shift to technology-focused electric vehicle technology

What Jim has written about this

From “Daily Inspiration: “It’s time to move from triage to tomorrow!”” (January 2023)

Your car dashboard of today will be obsolete in but 18 months, just like your smartphone

The cost and complexity of car maintenance will have collapsed with the arrival of electric vehicles because there is really nothing to maintain

50% to 80% of the revenue that a company will generate by 2030 will come from a product or service that does not yet exist today

From “Daily Inspiration: “Can you envision the types of companies that will be on the Dow in 2030?”” (January 2023)

Electric infrastructure i.e distributed electric vehicle charging, and community microgrids - is key.  Big bets are being made

Your electric car is just a big battery and it is going to be an energy storage device in your home

There’s a lot of money to be made in ‘electric car charging wait stations’ (retail, food, etc - people want something to do while they wait 15 minutes for a fast charge)

From ““54 Things You Haven’t Thought About with Electric, Self-Driving Cars”” (July 2017)

watch the drones to understand the future of electric cars . One major form of car innovation today is occurring with battery technology, which is at the heart of electric vehicle technology. Those in the drone space are working hard to figure out how to extend the range of flying drones, and are doing lots of research with new battery technologies that offer extended range through lower weight. This will bleed into the electric vehicle market and will lead to rapid advances in electric car range and a decrease in cost.

big bets are being made, big bets will be lost ; Business books will be written in the future as to who won, who lost, and which big bets they made along the way It’s an epic battle between car companies and tech companies, and we are in the midst of a 100-year revolution. One estimate suggests that there are currently 50 major competitors in the space today; that might be reduced to 5 or 6 within a decade.

networked battery technology will emerge . The big pursuit with mobile phone technology today involves dockless-or-plugless charging : you simply charge your phone through the air. That will eventually come to electric car batteries — and maybe I’ll sell you a little bit of my excess battery energy while we cruise down the highway next to each other


Read the full pieces on jimcarroll.com:

Daily Inspiration: “It’s time to move from triage to tomorrow!”
Daily Inspiration: “Can you envision the types of companies that will be on the Dow in 2030?"
"54 Things You Haven’t Thought About with Electric, Self-Driving Cars”

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