Original 2021 statement: The cost and complexity of car maintenance will have collapsed with the arrival of electric vehicles because there is really nothing to maintain
What Jim has written about this
From “Daily Inspiration: “It’s time to move from triage to tomorrow!”” (January 2023)
And so trend #23 is ” Forward, finally!” - because we finally have the chance to move from triage to tomorrow!
There are a lot of things you will use in 10 years that have not yet been invented.
40% of the big car makers of today won’t exist by 2030, because they weren’t able to make the shift to technology-focused electric vehicle technology
From “Daily Inspiration: “Cars and trucks? They’re becoming upgradeable, hyperconnected, intelligent, data gathering electric technology platforms (with wheels!)”” (September 2021)
I covered the role of cryptocurrency and blockchain in future contracts as well as vehicle maintenance and tracking; self-driving and electric vehicle technology; legacy car companies vs. disruptive upstarts such as Tesla; the fact that we probably won’t even buy cars at some point in the future (“mobility as a service”), and the collapsing attention spans of the next generation when it comes to purchase and lease decisions.
Basically, vehicles have been built the same way for the last 100 years — they run on carbon, are driven by people, don’t connect with other vehicles, and operate independently. The business model has involved “car dealerships” and “car salesmen”, and manufacturing models that involve putting vast quantities of product into inventory in traditional showrooms.
Now, for the first time in over 100 years, massive change is underway. More vehicles will be based on alternative energy sources rather than carbon. A growing number will drive themselves, at the same time that they interconnect with other vehicles. They’ll operate on very sophisticated, intelligent highway infrastructure that will have a profound impact on energy efficiency, traffic patterns, and urban and highway design. It’s a future in which a large number of the next generation of transportation users might not even actually purchase a car, but simply use some type of vehicle or community sharing service. If they do actually purchase a car, they will likely do it online. All this is occurring as the speed of innovation in the transportation sector is shifting from the traditional pace of automotive/trucking to that of the hyper-innovation of Silicon Valley.
From “Daily Inspiration: Automotive Industry & Skills - “Yesterday’s knowledge won’t cut it in tomorrow’s world”” (April 2024)
I asked an AI to draw a picture of a car from ’ the olden days ,’ and this is what it imagined. It might be more complex than vehicles actually used to be!
And their industry is changing - essentially, with a far-reaching change to the very essence of what a vehicle is. This is a quote I’ve been using for years, and I still think it captures the essence of what is underway. “It’s amazing: If you were an archeologist and you dug up a 1900 vintage car and you dug up a 2000 vintage car, you’d look at it, you’d say they have the same DNA, the same fundamental design DNA. Mechanically driven energy from oil, powered by combustion, controlled mechanically and hydraulically, driven by a person, operated pretty much independently.
The complexity and cost of the number of dealing with these parts in the modern vehicle can be mind-numbing, as well as the labor costs to deal with this new complexity.
Read the full pieces on jimcarroll.com:
Daily Inspiration: “It’s time to move from triage to tomorrow!”
Daily Inspiration: “Cars and trucks? They’re becoming upgradeable, hyperconnected, intelligent, data gathering electric technology platforms (with wheels!)”
Daily Inspiration: Automotive Industry & Skills - “Yesterday’s knowledge won’t cut it in tomorrow’s world”