The original call
Original year: 2017
2026 assessment
Scorecard verdict: Verdict: Live, and trending toward right
Live, and trending my way. “Within a decade” lands right around now, and we are clearly deep into the consolidation phase — the EV startup graveyard is real, funding dried up, and several once-celebrated names have folded or been absorbed. We are not yet down to a clean “5 or 6,” so I won’t claim a full hit. But the direction is dead on: boom, then bust, then a handful of survivors. Call this one playing out on schedule.