The original call
Original year: 2020
2026 assessment
Scorecard verdict: Hit
Hit on the micro-careers. The rise of the creator economy, the gig and freelance platforms, the portfolio careerist who stacks three specialized side-hustles, the explosion of niche micro-credentials and badges — all of it confirms that the career has been chopped into smaller, faster-moving units. The “economy that succeeds through knowledge deployment” is exactly the AI-augmented knowledge work we see everywhere now. I am holding back the half-point only because the “fundamental transformation in the role of educational institutions” has been slower than the rest, which I will come back to honestly below.