The original call
Original year: 2022
2026 assessment
Scorecard verdict: Hit
Hit on direction and economics. In 2023, 81% of all new renewable capacity added worldwide generated electricity more cheaply than the cheapest fossil fuel option, solar is now the cheapest source of new power in most markets, and the overwhelming majority of new energy investment is flowing to renewables, batteries, and the grid, exactly as I said. I will hold the line on the larger claim, the economic case for carbon as the primary energy input for the rest of the century is finished. (I will flag the timing on one sub-claim below.)