The original call
Original year: 2012
2026 assessment
Scorecard verdict: Hit
Hit. This was two years before Apple Pay even launched. Today the phone is the wallet — tap to pay, QR codes, peer-to-peer transfers, and a whole generation that taps a watch at the register. The “second reinvention of cash” I described in 2012 is simply how money moves now. I also said no single player would “win” the space in 2012 because the infrastructure build was too big. That caution aged well too.