Prediction

Performance-oriented insurance: rewarded for measurable health

A 2014 future call revisited in Jim Carroll's 2026 Insurance Trends Scorecard.

trends-scorecardreceiptinsuranceoriginal-year-2014

Publish Date	2026-09-18
Updated Date	2026-09-18
Outcome	hit

The original call

Original year: 2014

2026 assessment

Scorecard verdict: Hit

Hit. This is now the explicit model behind John Hancock’s Vitality program and a whole wave of wellness-linked life and health products: share your wearable data, hit your activity targets, lower your premium. The wrist-to-policy feedback loop I described is shipping product. Solid hit.

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Industries

Industries Insurance & Risk

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Domains Computing & Data
Domains AI & Machine Intelligence
Domains Governance, Risk & Geopolitics

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Scorecard

Scorecards The Trends Scorecard: Insurance - What I Predicted, and What Actually Happened

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Sources

Sources The Trends Scorecard: Insurance - What I Predicted, and What Actually Happened

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Related ideas, trends and context

IndustriesInsurance & RiskInsurance is moving from pricing the past toward sensing, preventing and continuously managing fast-changing risk.DomainsComputing & DataThe computing, data and digital infrastructure that makes new forms of intelligence, simulation and automation possible.DomainsAI & Machine IntelligenceArtificial intelligence, machine learning, generative systems and autonomous agents that increasingly perform cognitive work.DomainsGovernance, Risk & GeopoliticsGovernance, assurance, regulation, resilience and the institutional challenge of keeping pace with accelerating change.ScorecardsThe Trends Scorecard: Insurance - What I Predicted, and What Actually Happened6 future calls revisited for Insurance, including 5 hits, 1 partials, 0 early calls and 0 misses.

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ARTICLE · Thu Jul 02The Trends Scorecard: Insurance - What I Predicted, and What Actually Happened