The original call
Original year: 2009
2026 assessment
Scorecard verdict: Hit
Hit. The talent crunch in insurance is now one of the industry’s defining structural problems — cyber underwriters, climate-risk modelers, AI-risk specialists, parametric designers. Whole categories of risk emerged that didn’t exist when I wrote this, and the scramble for people who can actually price them is real. I was right that complexity, not simplicity, was the future.