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101 Things #055: The volume of known medical knowledge is increasing 48% annually, going from 153...

A dated future observation from Jim Carroll’s December 7, 2021 “101 Things We Know About Our Future” list.

The volume of known medical knowledge is increasing 48% annually, going from 153 exabytes in 2013 to 2,514 exabytes in 2020
101-thingsforesight-receipt2021
Publish Date2021-12-07
Updated Date2026-09-18
Made Date2021-12-07
Horizonnow
Outcomeopen
Confidencemedium

Original 2021 statement: The volume of known medical knowledge is increasing 48% annually, going from 153 exabytes in 2013 to 2,514 exabytes in 2020

What Jim has written about this

From “Daily Inspiration: “It’s time to move from triage to tomorrow!”” (January 2023)

The volume of medical knowledge will have doubled by the time you re-read this post 78 days from now

From “Daily Inspiration: “Learn more stuff. Empty minds bring empty results!”” (January 2022)

… the rate of discovery based on research into gene variants for common diseases is increasing rapidly: One or two were discovered each year beginning in 2000; thousands were discovered in 2007. “ This knowledge reorients the entire medical system, from one where patients are treated once they are sick to one where patients are treated for what they are likely to develop as a result of their genetic makeup.   The volume of medical knowledge is doubling every eight years, and similar changes are occurring in other trades and professions .”

It is now estimated that with Covid-19, the volume of medical knowledge is now doubling every 78 days, up from eight years pre-pandemic. Similar fields are seeing similar exponential growth rates.

From “Daily Inspiration: 25 Things for 2025 – #4 “Presume, in the absence of constant action, your obsolescence”” (November 2024)

Medicine is seeing the nonstop arrival of new forms of discovery, diagnosis, and treatment, a flood of new medical technologies and systems, and a regular stream of new pharmaceuticals. That means that in the field of healthcare, it is estimated that nurses need to learn new medical devices and monitoring systems every 1-2 years, while doctors must update treatment protocols every 3-6 months based on the latest research. At the same time, pharmacists must learn about new drug interactions and medications monthly, and medical technicians adapt to new diagnostic equipment annually.

Farming? It’s all about science and tech, and with that, the field of precision agriculture is evolving so quickly, that it’s estimated that they need a knowledge refresh each framing season. Not only that, but they have to learn about new pest management techniques annually, new crop varieties and genetics every planting season, and upgrade their skills with drone and automated equipment training every 1-2 years. Just wait until virtual 24-hour farming arrives, and today’s Farmville-playing kid comes to manage real-life Farmville!

I could go on - every single career, profession, skill, trade, and knowledge set is going out of date faster


Read the full pieces on jimcarroll.com:

Daily Inspiration: “It’s time to move from triage to tomorrow!”
Daily Inspiration: “Learn more stuff. Empty minds bring empty results!”
Daily Inspiration: 25 Things for 2025 – #4 “Presume, in the absence of constant action, your obsolescence”

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These are the source records currently attached directly to this knowledge object. Concept-lineage and collection pages can provide a wider historical trail.