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Prediction

The genome cost curve falls off a cliff

A 2012 future call revisited in Jim Carroll's 2026 Healthcare Trends Scorecard.

The genome cost curve falls off a cliff
trends-scorecardreceipthealthcareoriginal-year-2012
Publish Date2026-09-18
Updated Date2026-09-18
Outcomehit

The original call

Original year: 2012

2026 assessment

Scorecard verdict: Nailed it

Nailed it. The cost curve was real and it kept going. The $1,000 genome arrived right on schedule, and today sequencing has pushed toward the $100 to $200 range. I even joked in that talk that you’d soon buy a sequencing machine at Radio Shack. That was obviously a gag, but the underlying point was serious: when a cost curve falls this hard, it changes everything downstream. It did. Cheap sequencing is exactly what made the 2006 personalized-medicine thesis economically possible. This is the cleanest hit on the board.

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